The recent developments in the Iran-US conflict have raised questions about the nature of the negotiations and the true intentions behind Trump's approach. Just a few weeks ago, Trump claimed that Iran had "agreed to everything" he wanted, but now, a half-measure in the form of a one-page memorandum is being pushed, which is more of a meeting agenda than a proper peace deal. This shift in strategy is particularly intriguing, especially given the upcoming high-stakes meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The timing of this meeting is crucial, as it is just seven days away, and Trump's position and leverage at the summit are weakened if he goes to Beijing with the war still unresolved or even with renewed escalation. The Iranians are taking advantage of this situation by whittling down the terms to end the war to something much more modest than what Trump originally envisioned. This half-measure is likely a strategic move by the US to buy time and avoid any potential embarrassment at the Beijing summit. The real question is why the US is pushing this half-measure when, just weeks ago, it claimed Tehran had "agreed to everything". The answer may lie in the fact that Trump wants to spend his very limited time in Beijing talking trade, not enlisting Xi’s assistance with the Strait of Hormuz. During talks between the Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers in Beijing on Wednesday, Beijing’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, urged the "parties involved" to promptly restore "normal and safe passage" through the strait. This irony highlights the complex dynamics at play and the potential implications for the region and global stability. For the rest of the world, including Australia, a rough concept of a deal that at least starts reopening the Strait of Hormuz and leaves the rest for later is a positive outcome. It is a step towards resolving the conflict and ensuring the safety and stability of the region.
